Business Booming In Bethlehem

Christmas was a great success in Bethlehem this year,thanks to a peaceful atmosphere.Large numbers of tourists arrived,filling hotels and frequenting Palestinian shops.Palestinian boy scouts were able to march proudly,beating their drums.All too often in the past,the town of about 30,000 residents was an armed camp,discouraging all but a few visitors and wrecking the economy.Even from afar,Christians this year could contemplate their spiritual homeland in tranquility,focusing on its meaning rather than disturbing media reports.We pray for continued quiet there for the benefit of all.

Tech Sector Leading

The S&P futures were up 1.4 tonight,while the Dow futures were down 1.0,and the NASDAQ futures were up 17.0.Only the NASDAQ had a positive week,rising 0.98.Oracle and Research In Motion posted strong quarters,with growth on both the top and bottom lines.Commodities futures were up across the board this evening.At this point,the shortened week ahead looks promising for investors-especially tech investors.Tech could well lead the way the remainder of the year.It's earning it's leadership.Retail can only hope that shoppers will go online this weekend,since a major east coast snow storm will cost them brick and mortar sales.This can't be emphasized enough at this critical time in the holiday cycle.

Tiger Woods and Us

We are all fascinated by the Tiger Woods story.It isn't because he is different,but because he is so like us:creating a brand,then having to protect the brand from ourselves.In an image-obsessed world,the brand is all.If the brand falls apart,the re-branding must begin.Surely a coach has written a manual for that,too.We are all living in the Hollywood era,with a certain brand-consciousness that also draws from Madison Avenue.
Whether it's the allure of bad girls or pretzels that are too hard for our aging teeth,we shall quite possibly be scarred and have to repair the damage.The amount of damage varies from individual to individual,but the re-branders are busy all over America and the world tonight.They're watching Tiger,and they're getting ideas.

Dubai World Crisis Subsides

The debt crisis of Dubai World,a United Arab Emirates sovereign wealth fund,has quieted down for the moment.The fund will meet with its major creditors,all of them British banks,some time next week.Dubai World is about 60 billion in debt,and wants to restructure 26 billion of it now.This announcement calmed world markets and foreign leaders.The consensus now is that everything will be worked out.The S&P futures pointed up this evening,and next week will be light on U.S. data.As we sit here tonight,there isn't too much to fret over other than Christmas shopping and decorating,which is a fun sort of concern.Buy yourself a present if you can and check back with the markets Sunday night,when Asia begins trading.The retailers need you.

A Growing Wall

The wall of worry got considerably taller this week as Dubai suspended payment on its massive debt load.Just when Americans were hoping to get into a party mood,a city many may not have heard of lopped a few percent off their recovering portfolios.The reflation trade was stopped dead in its tracks as commodity prices and equities plunged.It happened on a Friday,no less,leaving investors with a good few days to wonder what they are dealing with.The specter of commercial real estate,which had been put aside as a known quantity,burst on the scene with an unpleasant surprise.Is it just an anomaly or the tip of a new global iceberg?One can only hope that a week from now the holiday mood will be back on course on Wall Street and its satellite portfolios.

On Thin Volume

It's been noted repeatedly that the recent trading has been on thin volume.With next week being Thanksgiving week,that isn't likely to change.When trading volume is light,the market lacks a certain something-the ability to convince.It means there is an abundance of caution on the floor.In the current case,it also means the retail investor is still absent from the process.There's a lot of money on the sidelines,we are told.If the sidelines go on and on,they aren't sidelines anymore;they are the playing field.A new normal has arrived.It's like the aftermath of battle.We stand in the financial rubble,all too glad to get out for a day,eat some holiday food and watch some sports with our long-lost families.Only the equivocal data suggest the post-holiday won't be any different from the pre-holiday.The long,slow healing is our way of life for the foreseeable future.

Shopping Season More Critical

This year,the holiday shopping season is even more critical than it usually is.The Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October was released today.It showed a decline from 70.6 in September to 66.0.This does not bode well for consumer spending.Although earnings have been generally good to this point,a lot,but by no means all, of the success is down to cost-cutting.Companies have shown a remarkable capacity for increasing efficiency.At some point,however,the consumer is going to have to step up more than they have done so far.If not now,the biggest shopping period of the year,when?If they do not step up now,we are looking at the significant possibility of a stagflation scenario.That would overshadow the good spirits that have characterized the equity markets of late.One can only hope the pocketbooks will open in time to avert all manner of difficulty.