Market Steamrolls Forward

The incredible Teflon market powered on this week,impervious to all events,both internal and external.A near meltdown in Japan,terrible housing data in the U.S. and low consumer confidence were all brushed aside as the market posted gains for the week.The Dow rose 3.1,while the NASDAQ added 3.8 and the S&P 2.7.The cash has to flow somewhere,and bonds are out of favor because of inflation fears,so it's pouring into risk assets.Light volume today shows that there wasn't great conviction behind this,however.
At the Bay Hill Club&Lodge in Orlando,Scotsman Martin Laird did play with conviction,shooting a second round 65 for a nine under par and the lead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.South Korean K.J. Choi and American Spencer Levin shared second place at eight under.
The Mid-Atlantic region should be under a bit of snow Sunday morning,just when it was thinking spring was fully awake.Mostly it will be a covering for the grassy areas,with the roads having had a chance to rise above freezing in recent afternoons.
Next week will be focused on the March employment report issued on Friday,as well as the beginning of earnings season just around the bend.The S&P futures were modestly higher Friday evening,up 4.80,and Treasury bond and note prices declined.

Storm Has Few Clues,Light Market Week Ahead

Friday was a mixed night for Arizona basketball teams into the 2nd quarter.In Dallas,the Phoenix Suns trailed the Dallas Mavericks 48-38.Suns superstar Steve Nash was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter when he was elbowed in the head.Nash was able to walk off the court to the locker room.Meanwhile,Arizona State nursed a slim lead over Nevada 56-52.
A storm approaching the East Coast puzzled forecasters because it originated over the Pacific Ocean,where there are few data collection points.The same obtains as it crosses the mountains.Finally,a huge blocking High off the East Coast is so rare,there are few data points to compare it with.The best guess is that the storm will stay farther out to sea,sparing the coast of anything besides snow showers.
Next week will be a quiet one for the market as the approaching Christmas holiday diminishes trading activity.New and Existing Home Sales reports will provide a little something for the light volume to react to.For the past week,the S&P nudged higher by 0.3.Looking to Monday's opening,S&P futures stepped back 0.10 Friday evening,while the 10-year Treasury futures saw a decline in yield and a gain in price.
Update:The basketball games finished as they were in the 2nd quarter,with Phoenix losing to Dallas 106-91,and Arizona State holding on to their slim lead for a 78-75 win over Nevada.

Stocks Still Forging Ahead

For the eighth straight week,the stock market continued their upward momentum,unfazed by the Greek debt worries that resurfaced or impending financial regulatory reform.For the week,the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7,while the NASDAQ rose 2.0 and the S&P climbed 2.1.A flurry of new home sales and ex-transport durable goods business lifted investors' spirits.They didn't seem concerned that there hasn't been a pullback in so long,things are starting to look toppy.We've been headed straight up for some time now,and the laws of physics will have to be reckoned with eventually-just not yet,in their opinion.
We all know about porn on the web.Peep show girls seem to pop out at you from every corner of social media.The cheapening of affection has never been so rampant-just another sign of the moral disarmament that is wearing civilization down,from Wall Street to the other side of the street-the Securities and Exchange Commission,it's regulator,where several high-ranking staffers are being disciplined for wasting taxpayer time on trivial viewing excursions.That was truly stupid.
The S&P futures were optimistic this evening,up 10.60,and bond futures were retreating,signaling a continuation of the week's gains on Monday morning.

Manufacturing,Jobs Looking Better

The holiday-shortened trading week was capped off today by a positive employment report,with the private sector yielding more than 120,000 new jobs-the biggest gain since the recession began.Manufacturing reports contained strong data worldwide.Bonds were traded on Good Friday,with most Treasuries ending somewhat down,while stock futures reacted with an upswing,signaling a possibly good resumption of trading on Monday.
Christians were thinking of Jerusalem,a city of great and holy events commemorated at this time.They may have given some thought to finance,but their hearts were elsewhere today,in the midst of their faith that is rooted in the Middle East.Unfortunately,the Israeli-Palestinian conflict boiled over in Gaza,but Jerusalem itself wasn't in the bad news of the world.Pilgrims carried large wooden crosses in procession,retracing the last hours before Christ's crucifixion.The Western and Orthodox churches are celebrating Easter at the same time this year,unlike the usual divergence of calendars.
To all Christians,the happiest Easter to you and to yours.

Disappointing Economic News

This week was marked by disappointing news about the economy.Things don't seem to be going as well as had been thought.As well as had been thought was actually perfectly,but perfect is something that recoveries seldom are-especially recoveries from deep recessions.Everyone is so eager to get this behind us,they forgot just how steep the climb out was.Now we have been reminded,but there may be more to come.If we're in a proper correction,a 10% decline,we have several more red days ahead of us.That would be painful,but unless we get good earnings reports starting next week,it could well occur.We could backslide for a few weeks or so.It's better to admit it and plan what to do.What bargains would we like to buy;what bonds would we like to shelter in?That would ease the discomfort considerably.

Portfolios Rebound

Portfolios are starting to look the way they used to.That is,they're starting to be worth something again.They have a way to go,but it's certainly been a relief to see them recover lately.The worry is,September and October are drawing near.Historically,these have been terrible months for the market.The contrarian could well have an advantage now.Contrarians are expanding their bond holdings,gold and cash.They suspect the early autumn could see a significant decline for equities,so they are buffering their holdings.Recent history makes it easier than ever to be a contrarian.You just don't want to have your assets knocked down to nothing again.You're warier than you ever thought you could be.
Have a valuable evening.